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FiveThirtyEight Sours On Johnson’s Bid For Governor

CANBY, OR – With Christine Drazan continuing to lead in public polling, respected elections experts are raising doubts over the viability of longtime Democrat Betsy Johnson’s third-party bid for governor. Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight, one of the most respected political prognostication outlets in the country, joined KATU this weekend to discuss Johnson’s candidacy. Here’s what he had to say:
“Third party candidacies are not very common in American politics. Usually, they fall flat…  She’s getting around 20 to 30% of the vote in the polls right now. That almost always decreases as you get closer to Election Day and Democrats and Republicans come home to their party. We’re forecasting her to get around 9% of the vote in the end, which is perhaps enough to sway the race in terms of if that 9% comes disproportionately from Democrats, for example. But we don’t see her as a serious threat to win at this point.”
“Christine Drazan is ready to provide a new direction for every Oregonian,” said Communications Director John Burke. “Voters across this state – Democrats, Republicans, and Independents – know that Christine is the only candidate ready to lead on Day One and clean up the mess left by Kate Brown, Tina Kotek, and Betsy Johnson. Together, we will make history this November.”
WATCH Nathaniel Rakich’s interview here:
Interview Link